CARS.COM — Automakers have the technical ability to meet escalating fuel economy and emissions rules leading to a 54.5-mpg overall goal for corporate fleets by model-year 2025, according to a draft Technical Assessment Report released by federal and state regulators. It also warns, however, that the actual result will fall slightly short of that goal.
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The joint report by the EPA, Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and California Air Resources Board is the first step in a midterm review of the 2012 regulatory agreement between automakers and the government setting rules for greenhouse gas emissions and fuel economy through the 2025 model year. It looks in detail at the feasibility, cost and other impacts of the stricter limits for model years 2022 to 2025. It starts a process, including public comment, that will lead to a final decision by April 2018.
The agencies said that automakers are bringing new fuel-saving technologies - including more efficient engines, new transmissions and weight savings - to market more rapidly than expected. It said that the tightening standards likely can be reached with a fleet still powered "primarily on advanced gasoline engines."
"Today's draft report shows that automakers are developing far more technologies to improve fuel economy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, at similar or lower costs, than we thought possible just a few years ago. And they are adopting these fuel-saving technologies into their fleets even faster than anticipated," Janet McCabe, acting assistant administrator for the EPA's Office of Air and Radiation, said in a statement.
The actual number will fall a bit short of the 54.5-mpg target average, however, unless U.S. vehicle buyers' tastes change, says the report. That's because, unlike previous fuel mileage targets, the 2012 rules created a sliding scale of requirements based loosely on vehicle size, with higher targets for smaller vehicles and lower targets for larger ones. This scale allows for a variety of vehicles in the marketplace. The 54.5 goal is a sales-based estimate and the report projects the actual overall achievement, adjusted for trends that have shifted sales to larger SUVs and trucks, still will be high, but about 50 to 52 mpg. The 54.5-mpg laboratory number translates to about a 40-mpg window sticker rating for combined fuel economy.
The report provided no support for automakers hoping for a reprieve from the escalating targets. And in reaction to the report, a statement from industry trade group Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers warned about the costs: "It will be a daunting challenge to meet the very aggressive requirements of the 2022-2025 federal fuel economy and greenhouse gas rule. Absent a vigorous commitment to focus on marketplace realities, excessive regulatory costs could impact both consumers and the employees who produce these vehicles."
The report also was received with reservations by environmentalists, who would like to see standards raised. Daniel Becker, director of the Safe Climate Campaign, told the Detroit Free Press, that automakers could make more progress if they just put greater emphasis on building and promoting smaller cars rather than large crossovers and pickups. "President Obama's program is the biggest single step any nation has taken to fight global warming," he said. "Based on the plethora of low-cost gas-saving technologies the report documents, there is no excuse not to improve efficiency and strengthen the standards."
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